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Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Sheffield Wednesday 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 10, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.34 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.22 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.19 / defence 1.13, drawn from 9/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 39% | Draw 28% | Sheffield Wednesday 33%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 47%, Sheffield Wednesday 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights