Charlton vs QPR – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Charlton at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees QPR travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 9 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Charlton — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Charlton have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 4W 0D 6L at The Valley — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, QPR have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. QPR have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
QPR away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charlton 1.50 PPG, QPR 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Charlton, 1 for QPR and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
QPR in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charlton 56% and QPR 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 40% | QPR 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.31 xG and QPR 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.933 / defence 0.842 | QPR attack 1.144 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.297. Data: 49 Charlton games / 49 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 35% | Draw 32% | QPR 32%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | QPR 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 60% | QPR 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 35% | Draw 32% | QPR 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Charlton 1.31 / QPR 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.933 / def 0.842 | QPR attack 1.144 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Charlton (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.25
QPR xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs QPR kick off?
Charlton vs QPR is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at The Valley.
Where is Charlton vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs QPR part of?
Charlton vs QPR is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 35% chance of winning, QPR a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Charlton and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and QPR?
Record (2 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 1 | QPR 1W.
What form are Charlton and QPR in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. QPR (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charlton's attack rating (0.93) and QPR's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
35%
2.83
32%
3.09
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.56
1.25
QPR xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Charlton and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Charlton and 1.25 for QPR, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charlton come into this having played 50 games, going 16W 15D 19L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, QPR sit at 1.36 PPG from 50 outings (19W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for QPR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.26 PPG, QPR on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Charlton's home form reads 11W 4D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.24 points per game from 25 outings (8W 7D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.36 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 64%.
Last 50 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
QPR
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and QPR in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 16W 15D 19L in their last 50 games (1.26 PPG), while QPR have gone 19W 11D 20L in their last 50 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or QPR away?
Charlton's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.48 PPG; QPR away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and QPR runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Charlton
1
Draws
1
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and QPR?
From 2 meetings on record, Charlton have won 0, QPR have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Charlton 0-0 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 52%, QPR 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Charlton) and 52% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; QPR in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Charlton's recent matches and 56% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Charlton's recent games and 52% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and QPR tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, QPR in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.