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Prediction vindicated as Norwich edge out Charlton 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Norwich beat Charlton 0-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.78 xG and Norwich 1.36 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.70 / defence 0.99 against Norwich attack 1.16 / defence 0.85, drawn from 38/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 20% | Draw 31% | Norwich 49%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 44%, Norwich 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Norwich's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.56 PPG, Norwich 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norwich win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Norwich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights