Charlton vs Middlesbrough – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Charlton take on Middlesbrough.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charlton host Middlesbrough at The Valley in Championship, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 January 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Charlton — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Charlton have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charlton at The Valley this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Middlesbrough stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Middlesbrough have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, Middlesbrough have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Charlton) versus 1.50 (Middlesbrough). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Charlton, 1 for Middlesbrough and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Charlton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Middlesbrough in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 53% versus Middlesbrough 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 40% | Middlesbrough 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.95 xG and Middlesbrough 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.714 / defence 0.679 | Middlesbrough attack 0.991 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.230. Charlton's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Charlton's defence rating of 0.679 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Charlton games / 53 Middlesbrough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 34% | Draw 38% | Middlesbrough 28%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.94 | Draw 2.63 | Middlesbrough 3.57. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 50% | Middlesbrough 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Middlesbrough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 34% | Draw 38% | Middlesbrough 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 37% | xG Charlton 0.95 / Middlesbrough 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.714 / def 0.679 | Middlesbrough attack 0.991 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Middlesbrough xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Middlesbrough kick off?
Charlton vs Middlesbrough is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at The Valley.
Where is Charlton vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Middlesbrough part of?
Charlton vs Middlesbrough is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 34% chance of winning, Middlesbrough a 28% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Middlesbrough?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Charlton and Middlesbrough will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Middlesbrough?
Record (2 meetings): Charlton 1W | Draws 0 | Middlesbrough 1W.
What form are Charlton and Middlesbrough in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Middlesbrough (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charlton's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Middlesbrough's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Middlesbrough's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
38%
2.64
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Charlton xG
Total xG
1.78
0.83
Middlesbrough xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
11%
9.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 14.0 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Middlesbrough?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Charlton and Middlesbrough expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Charlton and 0.83 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Middlesbrough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charlton come into this having played 53 games, going 16W 17D 20L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Middlesbrough sit at 1.62 PPG from 53 outings (23W 17D 13L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Middlesbrough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.23 PPG, Middlesbrough on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Charlton's home form reads 10W 6D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Middlesbrough have taken 1.38 points per game from 26 outings (9W 9D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Middlesbrough are on 1.53 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Middlesbrough in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
Middlesbrough
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Middlesbrough in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 16W 17D 20L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while Middlesbrough have gone 23W 17D 13L in their last 53 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Middlesbrough away?
Charlton's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.38 PPG; Middlesbrough away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Charlton or Middlesbrough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Middlesbrough in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Charlton
0
Draws
1
Middlesbrough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Middlesbrough?
From 2 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Middlesbrough have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Middlesbrough last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Middlesbrough 0-1 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 50%, Middlesbrough 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Charlton) and 58% (Middlesbrough).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Middlesbrough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Middlesbrough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Charlton's games and 65% of Middlesbrough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Middlesbrough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Charlton's recent games and 58% of Middlesbrough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Middlesbrough tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Middlesbrough in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.