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Shock result as Leicester defy the odds to beat Charlton 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leicester beat Charlton 0-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 3, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.32 xG and Leicester 0.98 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charlton fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.85 / defence 0.98 against Leicester attack 0.85 / defence 1.22, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 44% | Draw 28% | Leicester 28%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Leicester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 55%, Leicester 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Leicester's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Leicester winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Leicester (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights