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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charlton and Coventry share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton and Coventry finished level at 1-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 25, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.15 xG and Coventry 1.85 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Coventry landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against Coventry attack 1.38 / defence 1.02, drawn from 23/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 23% | Draw 24% | Coventry 53%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 46%, Coventry 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Coventry's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.65 PPG, Coventry 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights