Charlton vs Burnley – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Charlton at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 32 as Charlton welcome Burnley to The Valley. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 16 February 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Charlton have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Charlton haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 3W 1D 6L at The Valley — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Championship matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Burnley haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, Burnley have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Charlton carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.90 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Charlton in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Burnley in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 58% versus Burnley 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 42% | Burnley 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.44 xG and Burnley 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.880 / defence 1.009 | Burnley attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.215. Data: 46 Charlton games / 0 Burnley games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Charlton 45% | Draw 29% | Burnley 26%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Burnley 3.85. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 50% | Burnley 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Feb 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 45% | Draw 29% | Burnley 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Charlton 1.44 / Burnley 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.880 / def 1.009 | Burnley attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Charlton (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Burnley xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Burnley kick off?
Charlton vs Burnley is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 16 February 2027 at The Valley.
Where is Charlton vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Burnley part of?
Charlton vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 45% chance of winning, Burnley a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Charlton and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Burnley?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Burnley in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Charlton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Charlton vs Burnley?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.88x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
45%
2.23
29%
3.41
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.48
1.04
Burnley xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Charlton and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Charlton and 1.04 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charlton's recent record stands at 10W 11D 17L from 38 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. Charlton haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 4W 10D 24L across 38 games — 0.58 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. Burnley haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charlton by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charlton have managed 7W 3D 9L from 19 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 2W 3D 14L across 19 trips, a 0.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.00 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Pre-Season
Burnley
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Burnley in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Burnley have gone 4W 10D 24L in their last 38 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Burnley away?
Charlton's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.26 PPG; Burnley away: 0.47 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Charlton at 58%, Burnley at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Charlton) and 68% (Burnley). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Burnley in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Charlton's games and 74% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Charlton's matches and 68% of Burnley's.
Do Charlton and Burnley tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Burnley in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.