Charlton vs Birmingham – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Charlton take on Birmingham.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Birmingham travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 December 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Charlton have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Charlton have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 4W 2D 4L at The Valley — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Birmingham — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Birmingham have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Birmingham have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charlton 1.50 PPG, Birmingham 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Charlton have won 2, Birmingham 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Charlton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Birmingham trading profile (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 53% versus Birmingham 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 40% | Birmingham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.07 xG and Birmingham 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.811 / defence 0.763 | Birmingham attack 0.857 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.234. Charlton's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Charlton games / 52 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 38% | Draw 39% | Birmingham 24%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.63 | Draw 2.56 | Birmingham 4.17. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 50% | Birmingham 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 38% | Draw 39% | Birmingham 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG Charlton 1.07 / Birmingham 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.811 / def 0.763 | Birmingham attack 0.857 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Birmingham xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Birmingham kick off?
Charlton vs Birmingham is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at The Valley.
Where is Charlton vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Birmingham part of?
Charlton vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 38% chance of winning, Birmingham a 24% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Charlton and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Birmingham?
Record (4 meetings): Charlton 2W | Draws 1 | Birmingham 1W.
What form are Charlton and Birmingham in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Birmingham (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.81x the league average against Birmingham's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Birmingham's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
38%
2.65
39%
2.58
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Charlton xG
Total xG
1.88
0.81
Birmingham xG
2.65
38%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Charlton and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Charlton and 0.81 for Birmingham, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charlton come into this having played 53 games, going 16W 17D 20L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Birmingham sit at 1.40 PPG from 53 outings (19W 17D 17L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Birmingham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.23 PPG, Birmingham on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Charlton's home form reads 11W 6D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Birmingham have taken 1.00 points per game from 27 outings (7W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.26 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Birmingham in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
Birmingham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 16W 17D 20L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 19W 17D 17L in their last 53 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Birmingham away?
Charlton's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.44 PPG; Birmingham away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Charlton or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Birmingham in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Charlton's record when hosting Birmingham specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Charlton
1
Draws
1
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Birmingham?
From 4 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Birmingham have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Charlton 1-0 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Birmingham?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 48%, Birmingham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Charlton) and 48% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Birmingham in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Charlton's recent matches and 52% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Charlton's recent games and 48% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Birmingham tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.