Cardiff 1-1 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 38%, yet in-form West Brom provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cardiff vs West Brom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees West Brom travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 15 March 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Cardiff — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Championship games this season, West Brom have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
West Brom's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour West Brom — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cardiff, 1 for West Brom and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cardiff in-play tendencies (82 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
West Brom in-play tendencies (82 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 42% versus West Brom 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cardiff 40% | West Brom 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.16 xG and West Brom 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.781 / defence 0.963 | West Brom attack 1.034 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.053. Cardiff's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 82 Cardiff games / 82 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 38% | Draw 29% | West Brom 33%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | West Brom 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cardiff are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form West Brom (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Cardiff 50% | West Brom 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 38% | Draw 29% | West Brom 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Cardiff 1.16 / West Brom 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.781 / def 0.963 | West Brom attack 1.034 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.05
West Brom xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs West Brom kick off?
Cardiff vs West Brom kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 15 March 2023 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs West Brom?
Cardiff 1 - 1 West Brom.
Where is Cardiff vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs West Brom part of?
Cardiff vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 38% chance of winning, West Brom a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cardiff and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and West Brom?
Record (3 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 2 | West Brom 1W.
What form are Cardiff and West Brom in?
Cardiff (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. West Brom (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cardiff's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against West Brom's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, West Brom's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 82/82 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.40
33%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.21
1.05
West Brom xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.08
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
10%
9.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cardiff and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.05 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cardiff's recent record stands at 25W 16D 41L from 82 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
West Brom, meanwhile, have gone 33W 22D 27L across 82 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.11 PPG, West Brom on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cardiff have managed 13W 8D 19L from 40 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
West Brom's away record stands at 11W 9D 20L across 40 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of West Brom's season.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.20 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 82 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
West Brom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and West Brom in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 25W 16D 41L in their last 82 games (1.11 PPG), while West Brom have gone 33W 22D 27L in their last 82 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or West Brom away?
Cardiff's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.18 PPG; West Brom away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Cardiff or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, West Brom in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and West Brom runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2021, when West Brom won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting West Brom specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cardiff
5
Draws
3
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and West Brom?
From 8 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 0, West Brom have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Cardiff 0-0 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 38%, West Brom 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cardiff) and 40% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: Cardiff have failed to score in 40% of games; West Brom in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play West Brom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Cardiff's recent matches and 42% of West Brom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cardiff's recent games and 40% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and West Brom tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, West Brom in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cardiff and West Brom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff and West Brom finished level at 1-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.16 xG and West Brom 1.05 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.78 / defence 0.96 against West Brom attack 1.03 / defence 1.16, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 38% | Draw 29% | West Brom 33%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 40%, West Brom 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
West Brom's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.11 PPG, West Brom 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.