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Stalemate at Cardiff's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff and West Brom finished level at 0-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.04 xG and West Brom 0.99 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cardiff fell 1.0 short of their projected output. West Brom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.82 / defence 1.12 against West Brom attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 36% | Draw 30% | West Brom 33%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 48%, West Brom 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

West Brom's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.17 PPG, West Brom 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights