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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cardiff run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Swansea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Swansea 3-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.09 xG and Swansea 1.12 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cardiff beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Swansea landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.76 / defence 1.25 against Swansea attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 33% | Draw 32% | Swansea 34%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Cardiff win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 46%, Swansea 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Swansea's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.19 PPG, Swansea 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights