Cardiff 0-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 41 sees Sunderland travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 April 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cardiff have posted 2W 4D 4L at Cardiff City Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Sunderland — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sunderland have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cardiff 1.30 PPG, Sunderland 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cardiff have won 1, Sunderland 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Cardiff winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cardiff in-play and half-time data (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 44% versus Sunderland 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 41% | Sunderland 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 0.92 xG and Sunderland 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.840 / defence 1.100 | Sunderland attack 1.025 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.095. Data: 85 Cardiff games / 40 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 27% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 43%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Sunderland 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Cardiff 50% | Sunderland 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 27% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Cardiff 0.92 / Sunderland 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.840 / def 1.100 | Sunderland attack 1.025 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Sunderland xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Sunderland kick off?
Cardiff vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Cardiff 0 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Cardiff vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Sunderland part of?
Cardiff vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 27% chance of winning, Sunderland a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cardiff and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Sunderland?
Record (1 meetings): Cardiff 1W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 0W.
What form are Cardiff and Sunderland in?
Cardiff (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Sunderland (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cardiff's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 85/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
27%
3.77
31%
3.24
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.15
1.24
Sunderland xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
8%
12.97
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 14.4 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.24 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cardiff's recent record stands at 26W 17D 42L from 85 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 37W 26D 22L across 85 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sunderland by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cardiff heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cardiff have managed 13W 9D 20L from 42 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 15W 16D 11L across 42 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cardiff are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.59 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 85 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 26W 17D 42L in their last 85 games (1.12 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 37W 26D 22L in their last 85 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Sunderland away?
Sunderland's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.14 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sunderland in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sunderland have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Cardiff's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cardiff
0
Draws
4
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, Sunderland have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Sunderland 2-1 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 40%, Sunderland 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cardiff) and 55% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 31%; Cardiff have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cardiff's recent matches and 57% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cardiff's recent games and 55% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Sunderland tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Cardiff 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Cardiff 0-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 0.92 xG and Sunderland 1.24 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cardiff fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.84 / defence 1.10 against Sunderland attack 1.02 / defence 0.87, drawn from 85/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 27% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 43%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 41%, Sunderland 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sunderland's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.