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Shock result as Stoke City defy the odds to beat Cardiff 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stoke City beat Cardiff 0-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.43 xG and Stoke City 1.07 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cardiff fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.91 / defence 1.14 against Stoke City attack 0.94 / defence 1.21, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 45% | Draw 26% | Stoke City 28%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Stoke City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 49%, Stoke City 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Stoke City's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.20 PPG, Stoke City 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Stoke City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights