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Prediction vindicated as Cardiff edge out Derby 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Derby 2-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.49 xG and Derby 0.99 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Derby attack 0.84 / defence 1.23, drawn from 74/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 48% | Draw 28% | Derby 24%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 47%, Derby 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Derby's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.22 PPG, Derby 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights