Cardiff vs Burnley – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Cardiff at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 15 as Cardiff welcome Burnley to Cardiff City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Cardiff have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cardiff at Cardiff City Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Burnley have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Cardiff carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Burnley have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Cardiff.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Burnley winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Burnley have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Cardiff trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Burnley trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cardiff 61% and Burnley 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 54% | Burnley 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.88 xG and Burnley 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.906 / defence 1.134 | Burnley attack 0.823 / defence 1.430. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.246. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.430 — this is suppressing Cardiff's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Cardiff games / 6 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 51% | Draw 28% | Burnley 21%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Burnley 4.76. Cardiff hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Burnley lead the H2H ledger, but Cardiff carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 50% | Burnley 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 51% | Draw 28% | Burnley 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Cardiff 1.88 / Burnley 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.906 / def 1.134 | Burnley attack 0.823 / def 1.430 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Burnley xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Burnley kick off?
Cardiff vs Burnley is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Cardiff City Stadium.
Where is Cardiff vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Burnley part of?
Cardiff vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 51% chance of winning, Burnley a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Cardiff and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Burnley?
Record (4 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 1 | Burnley 3W.
What form are Cardiff and Burnley in?
Cardiff (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Burnley (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cardiff's attack at 0.91x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
51%
1.95
28%
3.55
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Cardiff xG
Total xG
3.04
1.16
Burnley xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
3%
31.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.16 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Cardiff have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 22W 12D 10L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cardiff, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burnley's form line: 4W 13D 27L from 44 games, 0.57 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cardiff are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cardiff have posted 2.14 PPG from 22 outings (14W 5D 3L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 2W 4D 16L from 22 away games — 0.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.02 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cardiff have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Burnley in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Early Season
Burnley
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Burnley in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 22W 12D 10L in their last 44 games (1.77 PPG), while Burnley have gone 4W 13D 27L in their last 44 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Burnley away?
Cardiff's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 2.14 PPG; Burnley away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and Burnley runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Burnley have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Burnley won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cardiff
1
Draws
3
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 0, Burnley have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2025, when Cardiff 1-2 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cardiff at 54%, Burnley at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cardiff) and 68% (Burnley). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Cardiff's games and 77% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cardiff vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cardiff's matches and 68% of Burnley's.
Do Cardiff and Burnley tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Burnley in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.