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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cardiff and Bristol City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff and Bristol City finished level at 1-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.30 xG and Bristol City 1.08 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.92 / defence 1.12 against Bristol City attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 77/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 42% | Draw 28% | Bristol City 31%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 49%, Bristol City 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Bristol City's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.21 PPG, Bristol City 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights