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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Watford 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley beat Watford 2-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.30 xG and Watford 0.82 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.76 / defence 0.68 against Watford attack 1.17 / defence 1.24, drawn from 21/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 46% | Draw 32% | Watford 21%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 46%, Watford 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Watford's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burnley 1.10 PPG, Watford 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights