Burnley 1-0 Swansea – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Burnley take on Swansea.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Burnley and Swansea meet at Turf Moor in Championship, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Burnley's overall Championship record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Burnley's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Turf Moor this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Swansea have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Swansea away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Burnley, 0 for Swansea and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2023, ended 2–1 with Burnley winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 54% versus Swansea 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 50% | Swansea 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.88 xG and Swansea 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.790 / defence 0.838 | Swansea attack 0.851 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.004. Burnley's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Burnley games / 60 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Burnley 36% | Draw 38% | Swansea 26%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.78 | Draw 2.63 | Swansea 3.85. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.59. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.59 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Swansea's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 21% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 60% | Swansea 30% BTTS from recent games.

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