Burnley 1-1 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stoke City at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Stoke City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 13 as Burnley welcome Stoke City to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 5 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Burnley — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Turf Moor this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stoke City stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stoke City's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Burnley) versus 1.20 (Stoke City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Burnley in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Stoke City in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 53% versus Stoke City 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Burnley 35% | Stoke City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.19 xG and Stoke City 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 1.037 / defence 1.125 | Stoke City attack 0.974 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.093. Data: 11 Burnley games / 57 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 36% | Draw 28% | Stoke City 36%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Stoke City 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Burnley 70% | Stoke City 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 36% | Draw 28% | Stoke City 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Burnley 1.19 / Stoke City 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 1.037 / def 1.125 | Stoke City attack 0.974 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Stoke City xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Stoke City kick off?
Burnley vs Stoke City kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 5 October 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Stoke City?
Burnley 1 - 1 Stoke City.
Where is Burnley vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Stoke City part of?
Burnley vs Stoke City is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 36% chance of winning, Stoke City a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Burnley and Stoke City will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Stoke City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Stoke City in?
Burnley (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Stoke City (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Burnley's attack at 1.04x the league average against Stoke City's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stoke City's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
36%
2.80
28%
3.57
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.38
1.20
Stoke City xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
11%
9.28
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Burnley and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Burnley and 1.20 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley come into this having played 49 games, going 11W 20D 18L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stoke City sit at 1.22 PPG from 49 outings (16W 12D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Stoke City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 1.08 PPG, Stoke City on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Burnley's home form reads 7W 9D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Stoke City have taken 1.21 points per game from 24 outings (8W 5D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.16 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Stoke City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 11W 20D 18L in their last 49 games (1.08 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 16W 12D 21L in their last 49 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Stoke City away?
Burnley's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.25 PPG; Stoke City away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Burnley or Stoke City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Stoke City in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Burnley's record when hosting Stoke City specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Burnley
2
Draws
0
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Stoke City?
From 4 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, Stoke City have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Stoke City last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2025, when Burnley 0-0 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Stoke City?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 50%, Stoke City 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Burnley) and 50% (Stoke City).
On the defensive side: Stoke City in 33%; Burnley have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Stoke City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burnley's recent matches and 54% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Stoke City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Burnley's recent games and 50% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Stoke City tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Stoke City in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley and Stoke City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 13, as Burnley and Stoke City drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.19 xG and Stoke City 1.20 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 1.04 / defence 1.12 against Stoke City attack 0.97 / defence 0.93, drawn from 11/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 36% | Draw 28% | Stoke City 36%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 35%, Stoke City 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Stoke City's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.08 PPG, Stoke City 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.