Burnley vs QPR – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
QPR make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Championship, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Tuesday 26 January 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burnley have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley at Turf Moor this season: 0W 7D 3L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
QPR (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Burnley against 1.10 for QPR. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Burnley have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, QPR in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Burnley lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Burnley 65% and QPR 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 54% | QPR 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.19 xG and QPR 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.754 / defence 1.094 | QPR attack 0.878 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.292. Burnley's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Burnley games / 60 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 35% | Draw 27% | QPR 38%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | QPR 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates QPR as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Burnley 80% | QPR 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Jan 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 35% | Draw 27% | QPR 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Burnley 1.19 / QPR 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.754 / def 1.094 | QPR attack 0.878 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: QPR (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.24
QPR xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs QPR kick off?
Burnley vs QPR is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 January 2027 at Turf Moor.
Where is Burnley vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs QPR part of?
Burnley vs QPR is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 35% chance of winning, QPR a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Burnley and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and QPR?
Record (5 meetings): Burnley 2W | Draws 2 | QPR 1W.
What form are Burnley and QPR in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. QPR (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.75) and QPR's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.88x) against Burnley's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 14/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
35%
2.86
27%
3.64
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.43
1.24
QPR xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Burnley and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Burnley and 1.24 for QPR, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Burnley have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 5W 17D 30L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR's form line: 18W 13D 21L from 52 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, QPR are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Burnley have posted 0.69 PPG from 26 outings (2W 12D 12L).
On the road, QPR have gone 7W 9D 10L from 26 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.38 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; QPR in 62%.
Last 52 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and QPR in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 5W 17D 30L in their last 52 games (0.62 PPG), while QPR have gone 18W 13D 21L in their last 52 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or QPR away?
QPR's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.69 PPG; QPR away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 3 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burnley won 0-5 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Burnley
2
Draws
1
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and QPR?
From 5 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, QPR have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2026, when QPR 1-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and QPR?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 54%, QPR 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Burnley) and 46% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 38% of games; QPR in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Burnley's recent matches and 50% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Burnley's recent games and 46% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and QPR tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, QPR in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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