Burnley 0-0 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Preston encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Preston travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Preston have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preston's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Burnley have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Burnley have won 1, Preston 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 3–0 with Burnley winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Preston trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 59% versus Preston 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 56% | Preston 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.88 xG and Preston 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.995 / defence 0.931 | Preston attack 0.897 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.020. Preston bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Burnley's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Burnley games / 54 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 62% | Draw 22% | Preston 16%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Preston 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Burnley (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 70% | Preston 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 62% | Draw 22% | Preston 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Burnley 1.88 / Preston 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.995 / def 0.931 | Preston attack 0.897 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Burnley (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Preston xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Preston kick off?
Burnley vs Preston kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Preston?
Burnley 0 - 0 Preston.
Where is Burnley vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Preston part of?
Burnley vs Preston is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 62% chance of winning, Preston a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Burnley and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Preston?
Record (2 meetings): Burnley 1W | Draws 1 | Preston 0W.
What form are Burnley and Preston in?
Burnley (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Preston (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burnley's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Preston's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.57
16%
6.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.74
0.85
Preston xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
6.09
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
15%
6.58
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
2%
40.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Burnley and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Burnley and 0.85 for Preston, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Preston?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley come into this having played 46 games, going 10W 11D 25L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.11 PPG from 46 outings (14W 9D 23L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 0.89 PPG, Preston on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Burnley's home form reads 5W 5D 13L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (5W 4D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.09 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Preston
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Preston in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 10W 11D 25L in their last 46 games (0.89 PPG), while Preston have gone 14W 9D 23L in their last 46 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Preston away?
Burnley's home record (0.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.87 PPG; Preston away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2023, when Burnley won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Preston specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Burnley
3
Draws
0
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Preston?
From 4 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Preston have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Preston 0-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Preston?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 56%, Preston 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Burnley) and 56% (Preston). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 30% of games; Preston in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Burnley's recent matches and 39% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Burnley's matches and 56% of Preston's.
Do Burnley and Preston tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Preston in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Burnley's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley and Preston finished level at 0-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 9, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.88 xG and Preston 0.85 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burnley fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Preston landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.99 / defence 0.93 against Preston attack 0.90 / defence 1.30, drawn from 8/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 62% | Draw 22% | Preston 16%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 56%, Preston 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Preston's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 0.89 PPG, Preston 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.