Burnley 2-1 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Burnley at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Portsmouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burnley host Portsmouth at Turf Moor in Championship, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Turf Moor this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Portsmouth have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Portsmouth have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Portsmouth's away record: 4W 6D 0L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Burnley at 1.40 PPG versus Portsmouth's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Burnley in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Portsmouth in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 60% versus Portsmouth 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 58% | Portsmouth 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 2.20 xG and Portsmouth 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 1.188 / defence 0.986 | Portsmouth attack 1.181 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.118. Portsmouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Burnley's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Burnley games / 5 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 58% | Draw 20% | Portsmouth 22%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | Portsmouth 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Burnley (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 70% | Portsmouth 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Portsmouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 58% | Draw 20% | Portsmouth 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 65% | xG Burnley 2.20 / Portsmouth 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 1.188 / def 0.986 | Portsmouth attack 1.181 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Burnley (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Portsmouth xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Portsmouth kick off?
Burnley vs Portsmouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Portsmouth?
Burnley 2 - 1 Portsmouth.
Where is Burnley vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Portsmouth part of?
Burnley vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 58% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 22% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Burnley and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Portsmouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Portsmouth in?
Burnley (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Portsmouth (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Burnley's attack at 1.19x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Portsmouth's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
58%
1.73
20%
4.95
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.50
1.30
Portsmouth xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
11%
8.99
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
2%
40.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Burnley and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Burnley and 1.30 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Portsmouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley come into this having played 43 games, going 8W 10D 25L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Portsmouth sit at 1.95 PPG from 43 outings (24W 12D 7L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Portsmouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Portsmouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.16 PPG clear of Burnley — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Burnley's home form reads 3W 5D 13L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Portsmouth have taken 1.95 points per game from 21 outings (11W 8D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.65 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Early Season
Portsmouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 8W 10D 25L in their last 43 games (0.79 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 24W 12D 7L in their last 43 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Portsmouth away?
Portsmouth's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.67 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Burnley or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Burnley
1
Draws
0
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Portsmouth?
From 2 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Portsmouth have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Portsmouth 0-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Portsmouth?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Portsmouth see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 57%, Portsmouth 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Burnley) and 48% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth in 57%; Burnley have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Portsmouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Burnley's recent matches and 43% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Burnley's recent games and 48% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Portsmouth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Portsmouth 2-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 6, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 2.20 xG and Portsmouth 1.30 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 1.19 / defence 0.99 against Portsmouth attack 1.18 / defence 1.32, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 58% | Draw 20% | Portsmouth 22%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 58%, Portsmouth 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Portsmouth's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Burnley winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.