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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Championship · Regular Season - 46

Kick-off

Sat 3 May 2025

12:30

Venue

Turf Moor

Competition

Championship

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Burnley Win

57%

Burnley

1.76

27%

Draw

3.72

16%

Millwall

6.17

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

18.2%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

13.1%

Home win

0 – 0

12.6%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.44

Burnley xG

Total xG

2.07

0.63

Millwall xG

57%
27%
16%
BurnleyDrawMillwall

1.76

57%

Home win

3.72

27%

Draw

6.17

16%

Away win

Goals Markets

61%

Over 1.5

1.64

39%

Under 1.5

2.56

34%

Over 2.5

2.94

66%

Under 2.5

1.52

16%

Over 3.5

6.25

84%

Under 3.5

1.19

6%

Over 4.5

16.67

94%

Under 4.5

1.06

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

36%

BTTS Yes

2.80

64%

BTTS No

1.55

Clean Sheet

53%

Burnley

1.88

24%

Millwall

4.23

Win to Nil

30%

Burnley

3.30

4%

Millwall

26.07

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 12.6 7.9 2.5 0.5 0.1
1 18.2 11.4 3.6 0.8 0.1
2 13.1 8.2 2.6 0.5 0.1
3 6.3 4.0 1.2 0.3
4 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.1
5 0.7 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.442
λ Away (xG) 0.629
Total xG 2.071
League avg home goals 1.302
League avg away goals 1.004
Burnley attack strength 1.073
Burnley defence strength 0.706
Millwall attack strength 0.888
Millwall defence strength 1.032
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 45 / 91