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Burnley vs Middlesbrough – Predictions

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Championship · Regular Season - 19

Kick-off

Fri 6 Dec 2024

20:00

Venue

Turf Moor

Competition

Championship

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Middlesbrough Win

34%

Burnley

2.92

30%

Draw

3.37

36%

Middlesbrough

2.77

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.9%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.5%

Away win

1 – 0

10.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.22

Burnley xG

Total xG

2.48

1.26

Middlesbrough xG

34%
30%
36%
BurnleyDrawMiddlesbrough

2.92

34%

Home win

3.37

30%

Draw

2.77

36%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

45%

Over 2.5

2.22

55%

Under 2.5

1.82

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.93

48%

BTTS No

2.07

Clean Sheet

28%

Burnley

3.53

29%

Middlesbrough

3.39

Win to Nil

10%

Burnley

10.31

11%

Middlesbrough

9.39

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.4 10.5 6.6 2.8 0.9 0.2
1 10.2 12.9 8.1 3.4 1.1 0.3
2 6.2 7.9 5.0 2.1 0.7 0.2
3 2.5 3.2 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1
4 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.221
λ Away (xG) 1.260
Total xG 2.481
League avg home goals 1.341
League avg away goals 1.056
Burnley attack strength 0.886
Burnley defence strength 0.712
Middlesbrough attack strength 1.675
Middlesbrough defence strength 1.027
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 18 / 64