Burnley 0-0 Leeds – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Burnley take on Leeds.

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Match Analysis

Burnley host Leeds at Turf Moor in Championship (matchday 29). Kick-off is Monday 27 January 2025 at 20:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Burnley have gone 5W 5D 0L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Burnley at home: 4W 6D 0L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Leeds — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Leeds away from home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Burnley) versus 2.40 (Leeds). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Burnley have won 1, Leeds 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Burnley 1–0 Leeds — a Burnley win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Burnley in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Leeds in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 47% versus Leeds 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 44% | Leeds 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.84 xG and Leeds 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.675 / defence 0.671 | Leeds attack 1.227 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.041. Burnley's attack rating of 0.675 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Leeds have an above-average attack rating of 1.227, which lifts their away xG to 0.86. Burnley have a tight defence (rating 0.671), which is pulling Leeds's projected output down. Data: built from Burnley's last 28 games and Leeds's last 74.

Result probabilities: Burnley 32% | Draw 36% | Leeds 32%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.17 | Draw 2.77 | Leeds 3.09. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Burnley's lower xG of 0.84 gives a real chance they fail to score.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.70 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 76% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burnley's last 10 home games and Leeds's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burnley 20% (last 10 home games) | Leeds 50% (last 10 away games).

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