Burnley vs Charlton – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 35%, yet in-form Charlton provide a compelling counter-argument — this Burnley vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 10 as Burnley welcome Charlton to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Championship appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Charlton have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Charlton have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, Charlton have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Charlton's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Burnley's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Burnley register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Charlton in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Charlton trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Burnley 64% and Charlton 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 52% | Charlton 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.39 xG and Charlton 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.866 / defence 1.169 | Charlton attack 0.911 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.264. Data: 6 Burnley games / 51 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 35% | Draw 32% | Charlton 33%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Charlton 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charlton (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 60% | Charlton 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 35% | Draw 32% | Charlton 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Burnley 1.39 / Charlton 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.866 / def 1.169 | Charlton attack 0.911 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Burnley (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Charlton xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Charlton kick off?
Burnley vs Charlton is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at Turf Moor.
Where is Burnley vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Charlton part of?
Burnley vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 35% chance of winning, Charlton a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Burnley and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Charlton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Charlton in?
Burnley (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Charlton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burnley's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
35%
2.86
32%
3.10
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.74
1.34
Charlton xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
8%
12.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Burnley and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Burnley and 1.34 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Burnley have picked up 0.57 PPG on a 4W 13D 27L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charlton's form line: 13W 13D 18L from 44 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Charlton are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burnley have posted 0.68 PPG from 22 outings (2W 9D 11L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 4W 9D 9L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 0.98 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Early Season
Charlton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Charlton in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 4W 13D 27L in their last 44 games (0.57 PPG), while Charlton have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Charlton away?
Charlton's away record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.68 PPG; Charlton away: 0.95 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 50%, Charlton 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Burnley) and 41% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 41% of games; Charlton in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burnley's recent matches and 59% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Burnley's recent games and 41% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Charlton tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Charlton in 41% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.