Burnley 3-0 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Blackburn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burnley host Blackburn at Turf Moor in Championship, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Blackburn have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Burnley 2.10 PPG, Blackburn 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Burnley in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Blackburn in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 55% versus Blackburn 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 38% | Blackburn 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.53 xG and Blackburn 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 1.281 / defence 1.023 | Blackburn attack 0.722 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.133. Burnley carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 20 Burnley games / 66 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 54% | Draw 26% | Blackburn 20%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Blackburn 5.00. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 70% | Blackburn 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 54% | Draw 26% | Blackburn 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Burnley 1.53 / Blackburn 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 1.281 / def 1.023 | Blackburn attack 0.722 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Burnley (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Blackburn xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Blackburn kick off?
Burnley vs Blackburn kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Blackburn?
Burnley 3 - 0 Blackburn.
Where is Burnley vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Blackburn part of?
Burnley vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 54% chance of winning, Blackburn a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Burnley and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Blackburn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Blackburn in?
Burnley (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Blackburn (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burnley's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Blackburn's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.88
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.37
0.84
Blackburn xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
4%
22.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Burnley and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Burnley and 0.84 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley's recent record stands at 17W 22D 19L from 58 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Blackburn, meanwhile, have gone 28W 8D 22L across 58 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 1.26 PPG, Blackburn on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Burnley have managed 11W 10D 8L from 29 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Blackburn's away record stands at 10W 4D 15L across 29 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Blackburn's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.24 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Blackburn in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 17W 22D 19L in their last 58 games (1.26 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 28W 8D 22L in their last 58 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Blackburn away?
Burnley's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.48 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Burnley or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Blackburn in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Burnley won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Burnley
1
Draws
0
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Blackburn?
From 4 meetings on record, Burnley have won 3, Blackburn have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2025, when Blackburn 0-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Blackburn?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 52%, Blackburn 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Burnley) and 38% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 28% of games; Blackburn in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Burnley's recent matches and 31% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Burnley's recent games and 38% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Blackburn tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Burnley run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Blackburn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Blackburn 3-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.53 xG and Blackburn 0.84 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Blackburn landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 1.28 / defence 1.02 against Blackburn attack 0.72 / defence 0.96, drawn from 20/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 54% | Draw 26% | Blackburn 20%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 38%, Blackburn 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Blackburn's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.26 PPG, Blackburn 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.