Burnley vs Birmingham – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Birmingham at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Birmingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Turf Moor plays host to Burnley versus Birmingham in Championship, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Wednesday 25 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Burnley (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 0W 7D 3L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Birmingham have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Birmingham's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Birmingham are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Burnley register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Birmingham in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Burnley 1W, Birmingham 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2022, ended 3–0 with Burnley winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Birmingham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Burnley 65% and Birmingham 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 55% | Birmingham 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.89 xG and Birmingham 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.760 / defence 1.099 | Birmingham attack 0.928 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.283. Burnley's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Birmingham's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 13 Burnley games / 59 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 25% | Draw 28% | Birmingham 46%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Birmingham 2.17. Birmingham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 43% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
Poisson rates Birmingham as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Birmingham if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Burnley 80% | Birmingham 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 25% | Draw 28% | Birmingham 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Burnley 0.89 / Birmingham 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.760 / def 1.099 | Birmingham attack 0.928 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Birmingham xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Birmingham kick off?
Burnley vs Birmingham is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Wednesday 25 November 2026 at Turf Moor.
Where is Burnley vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Birmingham part of?
Burnley vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 25% chance of winning, Birmingham a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Burnley and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Birmingham?
Record (2 meetings): Burnley 1W | Draws 1 | Birmingham 0W.
What form are Burnley and Birmingham in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Birmingham (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.76) and Birmingham's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Birmingham's attack (0.93x) against Burnley's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 13/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
25%
3.93
28%
3.52
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.20
1.31
Birmingham xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
7%
14.54
19%
5.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.5 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Burnley and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Burnley and 1.31 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burnley come into this having played 51 games, going 5W 16D 30L for 0.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Birmingham sit at 1.49 PPG from 51 outings (20W 16D 15L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Birmingham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Burnley — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Burnley's home form reads 2W 12D 12L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Birmingham have taken 1.15 points per game from 26 outings (8W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Birmingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.43 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Birmingham in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 5W 16D 30L in their last 51 games (0.61 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 20W 16D 15L in their last 51 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Birmingham away?
Birmingham's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.69 PPG; Birmingham away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Burnley
1
Draws
0
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Birmingham?
From 2 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Birmingham have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 27 December 2022, when Burnley 3-0 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Birmingham?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 54%, Birmingham 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Burnley) and 46% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 38% of games; Birmingham in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Burnley's recent matches and 54% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Burnley's recent games and 46% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Birmingham tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.