🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as West Brom defy the odds to beat Bristol City 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Brom beat Bristol City 0-1 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 1.47 xG and West Brom 1.08 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bristol City fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 0.99 / defence 1.22 against West Brom attack 0.75 / defence 1.14, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol City 45% | Draw 29% | West Brom 26%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual West Brom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 46%, West Brom 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol City's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

West Brom's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.37 PPG, West Brom 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. West Brom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights