🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Bristol City edge out West Brom 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol City beat West Brom 2-1 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 1.29 xG and West Brom 0.80 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against West Brom attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol City 48% | Draw 29% | West Brom 23%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 38%, West Brom 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol City's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

West Brom's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.42 PPG, West Brom 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol City win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights