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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Championship · Regular Season - 11

Kick-off

Tue 21 Oct 2025

20:00

Venue

Ashton Gate Stadium

Competition

Championship

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Bristol City Win

41%

Bristol City

2.44

25%

Draw

4.01

34%

Southampton

2.93

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.7%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.8%

Home win

1 – 0

8.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.50

Bristol City xG

Total xG

2.85

1.35

Southampton xG

41%
25%
34%
Bristol CityDrawSouthampton

2.44

41%

Home win

4.01

25%

Draw

2.93

34%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

54%

Over 2.5

1.85

46%

Under 2.5

2.17

32%

Over 3.5

3.12

68%

Under 3.5

1.47

16%

Over 4.5

6.25

84%

Under 4.5

1.19

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

58%

BTTS Yes

1.74

42%

BTTS No

2.36

Clean Sheet

26%

Bristol City

3.85

22%

Southampton

4.49

Win to Nil

11%

Bristol City

9.41

8%

Southampton

13.15

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.8 7.8 5.3 2.4 0.8 0.2
1 8.7 11.7 7.9 3.6 1.2 0.3
2 6.5 8.8 5.9 2.7 0.9 0.2
3 3.3 4.4 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1
4 1.2 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.2
5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.501
λ Away (xG) 1.349
Total xG 2.850
League avg home goals 1.193
League avg away goals 1.169
Bristol City attack strength 1.039
Bristol City defence strength 1.181
Southampton attack strength 0.977
Southampton defence strength 1.211
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 56 / 10