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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bristol City and Hull City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol City and Hull City finished level at 1-1 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 1.14 xG and Hull City 0.74 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 0.98 / defence 0.79 against Hull City attack 0.90 / defence 0.87, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol City 44% | Draw 32% | Hull City 23%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 38%, Hull City 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol City's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Hull City's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.41 PPG, Hull City 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights