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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Derby run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Bristol City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Bristol City 0-5 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 1.32 xG and Derby 1.19 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Bristol City fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Derby outscored their 1.19 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 1.12 / defence 0.90 against Derby attack 1.16 / defence 0.86, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol City 38% | Draw 30% | Derby 32%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 45%, Derby 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol City's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Derby's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.43 PPG, Derby 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.51 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights