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Shock result as Blackburn defy the odds to beat Bristol City 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Blackburn beat Bristol City 0-1 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 1.22 xG and Blackburn 1.17 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bristol City fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 1.13 / defence 1.06 against Blackburn attack 0.94 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol City 37% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 35%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Blackburn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 50%, Blackburn 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol City's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Blackburn's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.47 PPG, Blackburn 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Blackburn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights