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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bristol City edge out Blackburn 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol City beat Blackburn 2-1 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 1.00 xG and Blackburn 0.66 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bristol City beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 0.96 / defence 0.78 against Blackburn attack 0.83 / defence 0.76, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol City 41% | Draw 36% | Blackburn 23%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 39%, Blackburn 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol City's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Blackburn's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.35 PPG, Blackburn 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol City win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights