Bournemouth 2-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vitality Stadium plays host to Bournemouth versus Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Saturday 12 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bournemouth have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bournemouth's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Vitality Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Derby (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Derby away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Bournemouth's favour (1.90 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bournemouth 0W, Derby 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 2–3 with Derby winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bournemouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games).
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 52% versus Derby 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 54% | Derby 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.61 xG and Derby 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.165 / defence 1.158 | Derby attack 0.617 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.086. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Bournemouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Bournemouth games / 36 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 57% | Draw 25% | Derby 18%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Derby 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Bournemouth (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bournemouth 50% | Derby 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 57% | Draw 25% | Derby 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 43% | xG Bournemouth 1.61 / Derby 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.165 / def 1.158 | Derby attack 0.617 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Derby xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Derby kick off?
Bournemouth vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Derby?
Bournemouth 2 - 0 Derby.
Where is Bournemouth vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Derby part of?
Bournemouth vs Derby is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 57% chance of winning, Derby a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bournemouth and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Derby?
Record (1 meetings): Bournemouth 0W | Draws 0 | Derby 1W.
What form are Bournemouth and Derby in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Derby (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bournemouth's attack at 1.17x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.62x) against Bournemouth's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 33/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
57%
1.75
25%
4.03
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.38
0.78
Derby xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
4%
27.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Bournemouth and 0.78 for Derby, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Bournemouth have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 18W 8D 7L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Derby's form line: 10W 11D 12L from 33 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Bournemouth are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Derby.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bournemouth have posted 1.94 PPG from 16 outings (9W 4D 3L).
On the road, Derby have gone 1W 6D 9L from 16 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bournemouth are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.00 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Derby in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 18W 8D 7L in their last 33 games (1.88 PPG), while Derby have gone 10W 11D 12L in their last 33 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Derby away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.94 PPG; Derby away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Derby in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bournemouth
0
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Derby?
From 2 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 1, Derby have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Bournemouth 2-0 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Derby see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 62%, Derby 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 81% (Bournemouth) and 31% (Derby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Derby in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 44% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Bournemouth's matches and 31% of Derby's.
Do Bournemouth and Derby tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Derby in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bournemouth cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Derby 2-0 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.61 xG and Derby 0.78 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.17 / defence 1.16 against Derby attack 0.62 / defence 1.30, drawn from 33/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 57% | Draw 25% | Derby 18%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 54%, Derby 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Derby's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.