Blackburn 2-2 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Blackburn at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Blackburn vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Sunderland travel to Ewood Park to take on Blackburn. The game is scheduled for Thursday 26 December 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Blackburn have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn at Ewood Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ewood Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sunderland — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Blackburn) versus 1.50 (Sunderland). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Blackburn, 2 for Sunderland and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 5–1 with Blackburn winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Blackburn trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sunderland trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 49% versus Sunderland 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 54% | Sunderland 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.09 xG and Sunderland 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.910 / defence 0.837 | Sunderland attack 1.106 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.025. Data: 67 Blackburn games / 68 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackburn 37% | Draw 34% | Sunderland 29%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Sunderland 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Blackburn as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Blackburn 20% | Sunderland 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 37% | Draw 34% | Sunderland 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Blackburn 1.09 / Sunderland 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.910 / def 0.837 | Sunderland attack 1.106 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sunderland xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs Sunderland kick off?
Blackburn vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Sunderland?
Blackburn 2 - 2 Sunderland.
Where is Blackburn vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Sunderland part of?
Blackburn vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 37% chance of winning, Sunderland a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Blackburn and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Sunderland?
Record (4 meetings): Blackburn 2W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 2W.
What form are Blackburn and Sunderland in?
Blackburn (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Sunderland (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Blackburn's attack rating (0.91) and Sunderland's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Blackburn's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
37%
2.72
34%
2.95
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.04
0.95
Sunderland xG
2.72
37%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
10%
10.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Blackburn and 0.95 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Blackburn come into this having played 67 games, going 25W 15D 27L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.48 PPG from 67 outings (28W 15D 24L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Blackburn on 1.34 PPG, Sunderland on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Blackburn's home form reads 13W 8D 12L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.27 points per game from 33 outings (11W 9D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Blackburn are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.27 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 25W 15D 27L in their last 67 games (1.34 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 28W 15D 24L in their last 67 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Sunderland away?
Blackburn's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.42 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Blackburn or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sunderland in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2024, when Blackburn won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Blackburn's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Blackburn
1
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 3, Sunderland have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Sunderland 0-1 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Sunderland?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 58%, Sunderland 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Blackburn) and 36% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 33%; Sunderland in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Blackburn's recent matches and 46% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Blackburn vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Blackburn's recent games and 36% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and Sunderland tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Blackburn and Sunderland share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 23, as Blackburn and Sunderland drew 2-2 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.09 xG and Sunderland 0.95 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Blackburn beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sunderland outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.91 / defence 0.84 against Sunderland attack 1.11 / defence 0.85, drawn from 67/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 37% | Draw 34% | Sunderland 29%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 54%, Sunderland 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Sunderland's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.34 PPG, Sunderland 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.