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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Blackburn cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Plymouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Blackburn beat Plymouth 2-0 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.89 xG and Plymouth 0.66 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Plymouth attack 0.66 / defence 1.50, drawn from 78/77 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackburn 67% | Draw 21% | Plymouth 12%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 52%, Plymouth 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackburn's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Plymouth's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.27 PPG, Plymouth 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights