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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Blackburn run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Millwall.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Blackburn beat Millwall 4-1 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.02 xG and Millwall 0.98 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Blackburn beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.91 / defence 1.13 against Millwall attack 0.88 / defence 0.89, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackburn 36% | Draw 31% | Millwall 34%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 51%, Millwall 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackburn's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Millwall's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.24 PPG, Millwall 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Millwall (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights