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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Leicester defy the odds to beat Blackburn 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leicester beat Blackburn 0-1 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.02 xG and Leicester 0.83 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Blackburn fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.71 / defence 0.85 against Leicester attack 0.81 / defence 1.10, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackburn 37% | Draw 36% | Leicester 27%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Leicester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 37%, Leicester 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackburn's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Leicester's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.24 PPG, Leicester 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leicester win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.02 scoring average — below par going forward. Leicester (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights