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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Blackburn and Ipswich share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 6, as Blackburn and Ipswich drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.01 xG and Ipswich 1.80 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ipswich landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.79 / defence 1.21 against Ipswich attack 1.22 / defence 0.96, drawn from 63/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackburn 21% | Draw 23% | Ipswich 56%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 38%, Ipswich 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackburn's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Ipswich's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Blackburn arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights