Blackburn vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Blackburn at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Blackburn vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to Ewood Park to face Blackburn in Championship, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 December 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Blackburn (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ewood Park, Blackburn have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Blackburn. A 1.00 PPG lead over Derby (1.30 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Blackburn register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Derby in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Blackburn lead 3W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with Derby winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Blackburn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 53% versus Derby 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 48% | Derby 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.89 xG and Derby 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.994 / defence 0.993 | Derby attack 0.900 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.290. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Blackburn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Blackburn games / 60 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackburn 55% | Draw 22% | Derby 23%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Derby 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Blackburn (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Blackburn as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Blackburn 70% | Derby 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 55% | Draw 22% | Derby 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Blackburn 1.89 / Derby 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.994 / def 0.993 | Derby attack 0.900 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Derby xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs Derby kick off?
Blackburn vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Ewood Park.
Where is Blackburn vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Derby part of?
Blackburn vs Derby is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 55% chance of winning, Derby a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Blackburn and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Derby?
Record (6 meetings): Blackburn 3W | Draws 0 | Derby 3W.
What form are Blackburn and Derby in?
Blackburn (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Derby (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Blackburn's attack at 0.99x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.90x) against Blackburn's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
55%
1.83
22%
4.47
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Blackburn xG
Total xG
3.05
1.15
Derby xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
3%
28.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.15 for Derby, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Blackburn's recent record stands at 18W 16D 26L from 60 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 26L across 60 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Blackburn against 1.27 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Blackburn have managed 8W 9D 13L from 30 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 11W 5D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Blackburn are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.30 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and Derby in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 18W 16D 26L in their last 60 games (1.17 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 13D 26L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.10 PPG; Derby away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Derby have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Blackburn have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Blackburn
0
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 3, Derby have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Derby 3-1 Blackburn.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for Blackburn, 67% for Derby — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Blackburn) and 63% (Derby).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Blackburn's games and 67% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Blackburn vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Blackburn's recent games and 63% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and Derby tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Derby in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.