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Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Blackburn 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Blackburn 1-2 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.18 xG and Derby 1.59 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.94 / defence 1.32 against Derby attack 1.04 / defence 1.02, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackburn 28% | Draw 25% | Derby 47%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 41%, Derby 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackburn's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Derby's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.39 PPG, Derby 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights