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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Blackburn and Charlton share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Blackburn and Charlton finished level at 2-2 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.15 xG and Charlton 0.96 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Blackburn beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Charlton outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.78 / defence 1.17 against Charlton attack 0.73 / defence 1.06, drawn from 70/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackburn 39% | Draw 31% | Charlton 30%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 39%, Charlton 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackburn's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Charlton's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.33 PPG, Charlton 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Blackburn (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights