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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Birmingham run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Portsmouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Birmingham beat Portsmouth 4-0 at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 1.22 xG and Portsmouth 1.21 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Birmingham beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Portsmouth landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 1.03 / defence 1.21 against Portsmouth attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 12/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Birmingham 36% | Draw 27% | Portsmouth 36%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 41%, Portsmouth 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Birmingham's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Portsmouth's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Birmingham (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights