Birmingham vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Birmingham at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Birmingham vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 31 as Birmingham welcome Derby to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Birmingham have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Birmingham have posted 4W 5D 1L at — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derby — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derby have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Birmingham are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Birmingham register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Derby in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Birmingham, 1 for Derby and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 2–1 with Birmingham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Birmingham in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Derby in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Birmingham 61% and Derby 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Birmingham 50% | Derby 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 1.58 xG and Derby 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 1.062 / defence 1.098 | Derby attack 0.958 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.240. Data: 54 Birmingham games / 54 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Birmingham 42% | Draw 29% | Derby 30%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Derby 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Birmingham at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Birmingham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Birmingham 70% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Birmingham vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Birmingham 42% | Draw 29% | Derby 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Birmingham 1.58 / Derby 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Birmingham attack 1.062 / def 1.098 | Derby attack 0.958 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Birmingham xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Derby xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Birmingham vs Derby kick off?
Birmingham vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027.
What competition is Birmingham vs Derby part of?
Birmingham vs Derby is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Birmingham vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Birmingham a 42% chance of winning, Derby a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Birmingham and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Birmingham vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Derby?
Record (5 meetings): Birmingham 2W | Draws 2 | Derby 1W.
What form are Birmingham and Derby in?
Birmingham (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Derby (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Birmingham's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Birmingham's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
42%
2.40
29%
3.48
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Birmingham xG
Total xG
2.88
1.30
Derby xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
6%
16.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Birmingham vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Birmingham and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.30 for Derby, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Birmingham vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Birmingham's recent record stands at 19W 18D 17L from 54 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 22L across 54 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Birmingham on 1.39 PPG, Derby on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Birmingham have managed 12W 12D 3L from 27 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 11W 4D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Birmingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Birmingham are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.37 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Birmingham have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Derby in 63%.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Birmingham
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Birmingham and Derby in coming into this match?
Birmingham have gone 19W 18D 17L in their last 54 games (1.39 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 11D 22L in their last 54 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Birmingham at home or Derby away?
Birmingham's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Birmingham at home: 1.78 PPG; Derby away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Birmingham's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Birmingham
2
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Derby?
From 5 meetings on record, Birmingham have won 2, Derby have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Birmingham and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Derby 1-2 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Birmingham and Derby?
Birmingham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Birmingham at 70%, Derby at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Birmingham) and 63% (Derby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Birmingham home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Birmingham play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Birmingham's games and 63% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Birmingham vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Birmingham's matches and 63% of Derby's.
Do Birmingham and Derby tend to score early?
Birmingham have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Derby in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.