Birmingham vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Birmingham at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Birmingham vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 31 as Birmingham welcome Derby to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Birmingham have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Birmingham have posted 5W 4D 1L at — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Derby — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derby have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Birmingham are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Birmingham register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Derby in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Birmingham, 1 for Derby and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 2–1 with Birmingham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Birmingham in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Derby in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Birmingham 58% and Derby 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Birmingham 51% | Derby 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 2.34 xG and Derby 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 1.333 / defence 0.875 | Derby attack 0.913 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.305. Birmingham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.333 — their λ of 2.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Birmingham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Birmingham games / 57 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Birmingham 66% | Draw 18% | Derby 15%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 1.52 | Draw 5.56 | Derby 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Birmingham (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Birmingham at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Birmingham 60% | Derby 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Birmingham vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Birmingham 66% | Draw 18% | Derby 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 59% | xG Birmingham 2.34 / Derby 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Birmingham attack 1.333 / def 0.875 | Derby attack 0.913 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Birmingham xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Derby xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Birmingham vs Derby kick off?
Birmingham vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027.
What competition is Birmingham vs Derby part of?
Birmingham vs Derby is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Birmingham vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Birmingham a 66% chance of winning, Derby a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Birmingham and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Birmingham vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Derby?
Record (5 meetings): Birmingham 2W | Draws 2 | Derby 1W.
What form are Birmingham and Derby in?
Birmingham (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Derby (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Birmingham's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.34. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Birmingham's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
66%
1.51
18%
5.46
15%
6.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Birmingham xG
Total xG
3.38
1.04
Derby xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
6.50
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
10%
10.38
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
1%
67.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Birmingham vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Birmingham and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.04 for Derby, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Birmingham vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Birmingham's recent record stands at 22W 18D 17L from 57 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 24L across 57 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Birmingham on 1.47 PPG, Derby on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Birmingham have managed 14W 11D 3L from 28 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Birmingham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Derby's away record stands at 11W 4D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Birmingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Birmingham are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.33 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby in 63%.
Last 57 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Birmingham
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Birmingham and Derby in coming into this match?
Birmingham have gone 22W 18D 17L in their last 57 games (1.47 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 12D 24L in their last 57 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Birmingham at home or Derby away?
Birmingham's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Birmingham at home: 1.89 PPG; Derby away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Birmingham's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Birmingham
2
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Derby?
From 5 meetings on record, Birmingham have won 2, Derby have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Birmingham and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Derby 1-2 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Birmingham and Derby?
Birmingham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Birmingham 64%, Derby 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Birmingham and 64% for Derby. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Birmingham home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Birmingham play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Birmingham's games and 64% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Birmingham vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Birmingham's matches and 64% of Derby's.
Do Birmingham and Derby tend to score early?
Birmingham have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Derby in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.