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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Birmingham and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Birmingham and Charlton finished level at 1-1 at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 2.09 xG and Charlton 0.87 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Birmingham fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 1.40 / defence 0.96 against Charlton attack 0.75 / defence 1.09, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Birmingham 65% | Draw 21% | Charlton 14%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 47%, Charlton 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Birmingham's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Charlton's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights