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Draw No Bet Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest draw no bet probability — Saturday 21 January 2023

Wed 18 Thu 19 Fri 20 Sat 21 Sun 22 Mon 23 Tue 24

Draw No Bet backs a side to win, with the stake returned if the match is drawn. Our prediction model takes the side's win probability as a share of all decisive results, ignoring the draw. Only selections at 70%+ probability are shown.

20 matches cleared our threshold on Saturday 21 January 2023. Pacos Ferreira vs SC Braga (SC Braga (draw no bet)) led the list at 85% in the Primeira Liga. The shortlist runs from 85% down to 72%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.

The shortlist spans nine different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.

Of the 16 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 14 landed the draw no bet market — 88%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Portugal SC Braga (draw no bet) 85%

Bundesliga · Germany Eintracht Frankfurt (draw no bet) 84%

✓ Over 2.5 65% BTTS Yes 56%

Eredivisie · Netherlands NEC Nijmegen (draw no bet) 83%

Premier League · England Newcastle (draw no bet) 82%

La Liga · Spain Atletico Madrid (draw no bet) 81%

Under 2.5 59% ✓ BTTS No 60%

Championship · England Luton (draw no bet) 81%

Championship · England Watford (draw no bet) 79%

✓ Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 61%

Challenger Pro League · Belgium RWDM (draw no bet) 78%

Under 2.5 56% BTTS No 57%

League One · England Plymouth (draw no bet) 78%

Under 2.5 60% BTTS No 59%

#10

League Two · England Colchester (draw no bet) 77%

✓ Under 2.5 70% ✓ BTTS No 67% Colchester Clean Sheet 56%

#11

Eredivisie · Netherlands Sparta Rotterdam (draw no bet) 77%

Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 57%

#12

Serie B · Italy Modena (draw no bet) 76%

#13

Thai League 1 · Thailand Bangkok United (draw no bet) 76%

#14

Eredivisie · Netherlands PSV Eindhoven (draw no bet) 76%

Over 2.5 56% BTTS Yes 57%

#15

Premier League · England Liverpool (draw no bet) 75%

#16

Premier League · England Bournemouth (draw no bet) 74%

✓ Under 2.5 62% BTTS No 59%

#17

League One · England Sheffield Wednesday (draw no bet) 74%

#18

Thai League 1 · Thailand Ratchaburi (draw no bet) 74%

✓ Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 61%

#19

League One · England Barnsley (draw no bet) 73%

Under 2.5 56% BTTS No 54%

#20

Süper Lig · Turkey Galatasaray (draw no bet) 72%

Showing top 20 fixtures by draw no bet probability (a 70% or higher draw no bet probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

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Draw No Bet — common questions

What does the Draw No Bet market mean?

Draw No Bet settles on whether a match is won by the selected side, with the stake returned if it ends level. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate draw no bet probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The draw no bet probability shown here is the selected side's win probability divided by the chance the match has a winner at all, since a draw returns the stake. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Draw No Bet on Saturday 21 January 2023?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Pacos Ferreira vs SC Braga (SC Braga (draw no bet)) at 85% draw no bet probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 70% or higher draw no bet probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these draw no bet predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.