Zlin 3-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Teplice travel to Stadion Letná to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 0W 0D 2L from 2 Czech Liga matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice — All Games: 0W 0D 2L from 2 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zlin at 0.00 PPG versus Teplice's 0.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.02 xG and Teplice 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.783 / defence 1.073 | Teplice attack 0.688 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.350. Zlin's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Zlin games / 2 Teplice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Zlin 35% | Draw 31% | Teplice 34%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Teplice 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zlin as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 35% | Draw 31% | Teplice 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Zlin 1.02 / Teplice 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.783 / def 1.073 | Teplice attack 0.688 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Zlin (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Teplice xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Teplice kick off?
Zlin vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Teplice?
Zlin 3 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Zlin vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Teplice part of?
Zlin vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 35% chance of winning, Teplice a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Zlin and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zlin and Teplice in?
Zlin (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L. Teplice (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.78x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
35%
2.83
31%
3.26
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.02
1.00
Teplice xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Zlin and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Zlin and 1.00 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zlin come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 0.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 0.00 PPG, Teplice on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 2 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Teplice in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Teplice have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Teplice won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Zlin
1
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 5, Teplice have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Zlin 2-4 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Teplice?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Zlin's recent matches and 50% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Zlin's recent games and 50% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Zlin run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Teplice 3-0 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.02 xG and Teplice 1.00 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Zlin beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Teplice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.78 / defence 1.07 against Teplice attack 0.69 / defence 1.11, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 35% | Draw 31% | Teplice 34%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 50%, Teplice 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 0.00 PPG, Teplice 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.